Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiv

   PDF

2. Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention

   1. Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention

      • Chiara de Franco, Christoph O. Meyer

      Pages 1-15

3. Forecasting Harm

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 17-17

      PDF

   2. The Coastline of the Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction

      • David Omand

      Pages 19-32

   3. Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between ‘Intelligence Failure’ and ‘Warning Failure’

      • Jan Goldman

      Pages 33-46

   4. FORESEC: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project

      • Ville Brummer, Clementine Burnley, Henrik Carlsen, Ana-Maria Duta, Bastian Giegerich, Raphaële Magoni

      Pages 47-64

   5. Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support

      • Fabian Wagner

      Pages 65-84

   6. Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime

      • Tom Vander Beken

      Pages 85-96

4. Communicating and Learning from Warnings

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 97-97

      PDF

   2. Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War

      • Chiara de Franco, Christoph O. Meyer

      Pages 99-116

   3. Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioner’s Perspective

      • William Shapcott

      Pages 117-126

   4. Responding to Early Flood Warnings in the European Union

      • David Demeritt, Sebastien Nobert

      Pages 127-147

   5. Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organisational Culture and Disaster Prevention

      • Marc S. Gerstein, Edgar H. Schein

      Pages 148-165

5. Responding to Warnings

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 167-167

      PDF

   2. Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective

      • Corene Crossin, James Smither

      Pages 169-186

   3. From the ‘Neurotic’ to the ‘Rationalising’ State: Risk and the Limits of Governance

      • Henry Rothstein, Olivier Borraz, Michael Huber

      Pages 187-207

   4. Silos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis

      • Gillian Tett

      Pages 208-216

   5. Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance

      • Thomas F. Huertas

      Pages 217-226

   6. Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to ‘Foresight for Prevention’ in an Age of Complex Threats

      • Warren H. Fishbein

      Pages 227-240

   7. Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks

      • Christoph O. Meyer, Chiara de Franco

      Pages 241-257

Assembling a high profile group of scholars and practitioners, this book investigates the interplay of forecasting; warnings about, and responses to, known and unknown transnational risks. It challenges conventional accounts of 'failures' of warning and preventive policy in both the academic literature and public debate.

• climate change
• crime
• environment
• Europe
• European Union (EU)
• Governance
• international relations
• modeling
• Nation
• organization
• Policy
• prevention
• Risk Management
• Transnational

• King’s College London, UK

  Chiara de Franco, Christoph O. Meyer

TOM VANDER BEKEN Professor at Ghent University, Belgium, and Director of the Institute for International Research on Criminal Policy (IRCP) OLIVIER BORRAZ Research Professor at the Center for the Sociology of Organizations at Sciences Po in Paris, France VILLE BRUMMER Head of R&D at Crisis Management Initiative, Helsinki, Finland CLEMENTINE BURNLEY Senior Project Manager at Adelphi Research HENRIK CARLSEN Deputy Research Director of the Division of Defence Analysis at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Sweden CORENE CROSSIN Employed at Control Risks' political risk consulting practice in Asia Pacific DAVID DEMERITT Professor of Geography, Convenor of the Hazards and Risk Group and Director of Graduate Studies at King's College London, UK ANA-MARIA DUTA Conflict Specialist at the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, the Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Italy WARREN H. FISHBEIN Coordinator at the Global Futures Forum (GFF) of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research in the U.S. Department of State, USA MARC S. GERSTEIN Head of MGA Ltd., USA, a management consulting firm, and is President of the Organization Design Forum BASTIAN GIEGERICH Senior Researcher at Bundeswehr Institute of Social Sciences, SOWI, Germany JAN GOLDMAN Teacher at the National Defense Intelligence College in Washington, DC, USA MICHAEL HUBER Professor for Higher Education Studies in the Faculty of Sociology and Director of the Institute of Science and Technology Studies at the University of Bielefeld, Germany THOMAS F. HUERTAS Vice Chairman of the Committee of European Banking Supervisors and Director, Banking Sector, Financial Services Authority, UK RAPHAËLE MAGONI Researcher on migration flows, the permeability of the EU external border and related security issues at the European Commission Joint Research Centre, Italy. SEBASTIEN NOBERT Post-doctoral Research Associate in the Risk and Hazards Group in the School of Social Science and Public Policy of the Department of Geography at King's College London, UK SIR DAVID OMAND GCB Visiting Professor in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, UK HENRY ROTHSTEIN Senior Lecturer in Risk Management and Deputy Director of the Centre for Risk Management at King's College London, UK ED SCHEIN Sloan Fellows Professor of Management Emeritus at the MIT Sloan School of Management, USA WILLIAM SHAPCOTT Director General for Personnel and Administration at the General Secretariat of the EU Council of Ministers JAMES SMITHER Director of Consulting Projects at Control Risks GILLIAN TETT Managing Editor of the US edition of the Financial Times, USA FABIAN WAGNER Senior Research Scholar at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria.

Policies and ethics